So the recession is over?  Statistically that is true, but whether we will notice much difference remains to be seen.  I rather doubt it – certainly not in the short term.

The problem as I see it is that so much money has been thrown at the economy that some improvement was inevitable.  But it was money that we didn’t have and which will have to be paid back.  Much of the money has gone to the least productive part of the economy – the public sector, which has continued to grow throughout the recession, while everyone else has had to cut back.

This state of affairs will not last beyond the General Election. We all know that, whichever party wins, massive spending cuts are inevitable – as are higher taxes.  Not an attractive outlook.

In addition, the recent rise in inflation is unlikely to be just a blip.  The unprecedented increase in the money supply over the past year or so must inevitably be reflected in the inflation figures. And that means higher interest rates on top of all the other burdens. Oh dear.